Lethargy
Steve Bruce of Walsh Trading - InsideFutures.com - Tue Feb 12, 10:48AM CST

The only constant is the tightening of the Chicago wheat spreads.  Fear of receiving vomitoxin laden deliverable stocks, at a discount might,  be a reason for stopping the trend and allow the basis to perform the task of rationing milling quality. Things will stay interesting in wheat through March deliveries as the running moving average in both Chicago and Kansas City are at levels which requires that storage rates decrease next month..we'll have to widen the spreads a lot, and quickly,  to   leave rates unchanged.  Given the light acreage seeded to winter wheat this Fall any problems with weather and coming out of dormancy could spark a rally and/or high anxiety.

 

 

                                Even though the trade has been talking about the detrimental impact of the hot and dry weather in December and January to Brazilian bean yields there still appears to be enough in the world to stem any concern of nearby tightness. US producers appear to be willing to move stocks off farm and basis levels are having a tough time showing strength. Spreads in both corn and beans are stagnating and it appears that we could remain on the defensive through deliveries.

 

 

                                Flat price in all grains have been stuck in a rut the past three months. Trade talk is that we need to see a rally in new crop corn values to entice more acres this Spring.       

 

                                                                                                                                                                                               

                                  

 

                                                                   

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.     

 

 

 

Join My Mailing List




Steve Bruce

               
Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com


Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604



Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.