Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Mar 15, 12:10PM CDT

Corn futures are showing fractional to 1 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Support is coming from strength in wheat and higher ethanol futures. Total export commitments are down 6.3% from a year ago, when importers were buying in anticipation of a smaller South American crop. Commitments are now 68% of the newly updated US export projection, vs. the average of 76%. China is rumored to be picking up additional US sorghum cargos.

May 19 Corn is at $3.71 1/4, up 1 cent,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.80 1/2, up 1 cent,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.86 3/4, up 1/2 cent

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.94 1/4, up 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 7 to 8 1/2 cents higher in most contracts at midday. Meal futures are up $3.90/ton, with soy oil 12 points lower. Year to date soybean commitments for export are now 16.4% below a year ago, catching up from previous weeks. They are 81% of the USDA export projection, as the 5-year average is 92% and last year was 87%. NOPA’s monthly report showed 154.498 mbu of soybeans crushed in February, below the average trade estimate but still a record for the month. Member soy oil stocks were 1.752 billion pounds. Heavy rains have slowed the Brazilian harvest in Parana, which is now behind last year’s pace and about 66% completed according to local sources. Argentine crushers are pushing for a decrease in the export tax on soy products to make them more competitive in the world market.

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.07, up 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.20 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.26 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.31, up 7 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $309.80, up $3.90

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.45, down $0.12

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents higher in most winter wheat contracts with MPLS steady to 2 cents higher. Even with the lower sales total last week, commitments are now 3% above a year ago. They are 87% of the USDA projected total (revised lower last week), with the 5-year average pace at 97%. Tunisia, Bangladesh and Algeria have also been drawn into the market by the recent price decline. Ukraine exporters have shipped 7.7 MMT of milling wheat, which is near the milling wheat export quota of 8 MMT, with the total wheat quota at 16 MMT.

May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.58 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.41 1/2, up 5 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.53 1/2, up 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are posting 20 cent to $1.425 gains in most contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are showing 50 cent to $2.25 gains on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 69 cents on March 13 at $138.39. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the Friday morning report, with the Ch/Se spread at $9.53/cwt. Choice boxes were up 5 cents at $227.75, as Select was 54 cents lower @ $218.22. USDA estimated the WTD FI cattle slaughter at 447,000 head. That is down 19,000 head from last week as flooding in most of NE and parts of IA caused transportation issues on Thursday. Cash trades this week have been reported at $127 across most regions.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $128.825, up $1.425,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $121.475, up $1.125,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $117.350, up $0.900,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.600, up $0.500

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.900, up $2.250

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $148.200, up $1.850

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are showing triple digit gains in most contracts, with a few contracts touching limit up before profit taking kicked in. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.01 from the previous day @ $54.13 on March 13. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 75 cents on Friday morning at an average weighted price of $68.05. The national base hog carcass value was up $1.08 in the PM report at an average weighted price of $51.52. USDA estimated the weekly FI hog slaughter was at 1.864 million head through Thursday, down 25,000 from last week but 16,000 head above last year. China’s Ag Ministry data shows the country’s hog herd down 16.6% from a year ago in February, with the sow numbers down 19.1%.

Apr 19 Hogs are at $67.875, up $2.075,

May 19 Hogs are at $77.300, up $2.400

Jun 19 Hogs are at $86.350, up $2.825

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 40 to 136 points higher ahead of the weekend. A weaker US dollar index is supportive. The Cotlook A Index was up 95 points on March 14 to 84.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 64.10 cents/ lb on Thursday, up 68 points from the week prior. Export Commitments for 18/19 upland cotton are now 11.8% below a year ago as sales have been lagging. They are 88% of USDA’s projection, just 1% below the average pace.

May 19 Cotton is at 75.66, up 136 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 76.75, up 130 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 74.460, up 40 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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