AgriCharts Market Commentary

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July 17, 2018

Corn futures are currently 3 to 4 cents higher after posting fractional to 2 cent gains in most contracts to start the week. Preliminary open interest was down 3,350 contracts yesterday, suggesting short covering. The USDA Export Inspections report showed corn exports of 1.217 MMT. That was down 17% from the prior week, but 8.41% larger than the same week in 2017. YTD shipments are 4.73% behind the same time last year, with just over a month and a half left in the MY. After the close, NASS reported corn silking progress blowing past the normal pace of 37% at 63%. Condition ratings were reported at 72% good/ex, down 3% from last week and a little below trade expectations, The Brugler500 index was down 6 at 381 points


July 17, 2018

Soybean futures are trading 6 to 7 cents higher this morning on a decline in crop condition ratings and continued strong export activity for this time of year. They saw 10 to 12 cent gains on Monday on a mix of short covering and bottom picking type buying. Nearby soy meal was up $3.10/ton, with soy oil down 33 points, pressured by crude oil. Export Inspections totaled 635,429 MT for the week ending July 12. That was down 4.88% from the week prior, but more than double the same week last year. Of that total, 54,998 MT was headed for China. Monthly NOPA was close to expectations at 159.228 million bushels and a record for the month. NOPA member soy oil stocks were below trade estimates at 1.766 billion pounds. The USDA Crop Progress report showed 65% of the crop blooming, with the average at 45% for this date and 26% of the crop already setting pods. It also indicated condition ratings down 2% to 69% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 375, 3 points lower on the week.


July 17, 2018

Wheat futures are 3 to 6 cents higher this morning across all three markets. They ended the Monday session with most CBT and KC contracts down 7 to 9 cents, while MPLS was steady to 3 1/2 cents lower. Pressure was from higher than expected yields in some HRW areas and rains forecast for the Northern Plains in the 5-day QPF. Wheat export inspections during the week of July 12 were 469,529 MT. That was a jump of 75.05% from the previous week but still 21.05% lower than the same week in 2017. The winter wheat harvest was 74% complete as of Sunday, 3% faster than the average. The spring wheat crop was reported at 93% headed, with the normal pace at 85%. Good/ex conditions were steady at 80%, with the Brugler500 Index down 1 point to 388.


July 17, 2018

Live cattle futures were mostly 55 cents to $1.30 higher on Monday. August was up $2.375, after touching limit up earlier in the day. Feeder cattle futures were 70 cents to $1.65 in the green. The CME feeder cattle index was up 11 cents from the previous day at $148.27 on 7/13. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 38 cents to $203.76, while Select boxes were 70 cents lower at $195.67. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 119,000 head on Monday, up 11,000 from the same week last year and even with last week.

Lean Hogs

July 17, 2018

Lean hog futures were down 95 cents to $1.60 in most contracts on Monday, with July expiring at $79.75/cwt. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 35 cents on July 12, to $80.91. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 45 cents on Monday afternoon at $83.37. The belly primal was down $1.81, with the loin $1.44 lower. The national base carcass price was $73.08 on Monday afternoon, down $1.18 from the day prior. USDA estimated Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 431,000 head. That was 14,000 head above last year, but down 13,000 head from the week previous.


July 17, 2018

Cotton futures are trading 93 points lower in the October contract this morning. The others are 24 to 28 lower. They were 2 to 8 points lower yesterday. NASS reported last night that 72% of the US cotton crop was squared as of Sunday, with 31% setting bolls (ahead of the normal pace of 24%). Cotton conditions were 41% good/ex, steady on the week, although the Brugler500 Index was down 3 points to 310 on more very poor ratings. The Cotlook A index was up 2 cents from the previous week to 98.45 cents/lb on July 13. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353